Winter Forecast

The Woolly Worm Forecast

We interrupt the Journey to a Land of Water, Wind, and Fire, to bring you this late breaking news. No, nothing to do with the election, it's pretty much a non-event in West Virginia. No, this is far more important.

It's Woolly Worm Time in West Virginia. And as we all know that means our Winter Weather Forecast has arrived. Yes, Punxsutawney PA may have its ground-hog, but West Virginia, and many other states, such as North Carolina have their woolly worm.

And this forecast of mine has been "cross-checked." That's right, talking with one of the guys at church this morning, I found that he had seen a woolly worm similar to the one pictured above (found on our farm in Greenbrier County) while playing golf at the Stonewall Jackson Resort in Central West Virginia. To date, I have seen no others, so I can, with confidence, go with these two sightings and not bother myself with any future pesky sightings. (I'll just call any future sightings contrary to my predominate two: "Indeterminate Outlying Data.")

Now that we have our data, here we go with the "Fearless Forecast" based on what I was taught by the good folks of Greenbrier County many years ago, and officially proclaimed to a waiting world by the the late Charles Von Canon. He explained to a small crowd that huddled together in the sub-freezing temperatures at the first Woolly Worm Festival in the middle of October 1978, in Avery North Carolina: "The Wooly Bear caterpillar has 13 brown and black segments, which correspond to the 13 weeks of winter. The lighter brown a segment is, the milder that week of winter will be. The darker black a segment is, the colder and snowier the corresponding week will be."

As you can see, there is a prominent dark brown, verily black, band at the head of the woolly worm (it is headed down the Gatepost). This dark brown is followed by a long, light brown coat, with just a touch of dark "wool" at the rear. This means that winter will start off cold and snowy, then it will settle down and be a mild winter for the rest of the time, with the exception of one very brief bad spell sometime in mid to late March.

So, now you know: that's what our winter will be like.

Of course, this is a West Virginia Forecast only. To be truly accurate, you will need to read the woolly worms in your particular locale. And remember, if you see more than one and come up with different forecasts, you're on your own as to how to determine which one is right (or you can proclaim all of them are correct and wait for Spring to proclaim that winter was just as you and the woolly worm predicted it would be).

Let me know what your woolly worms say.

And keep track of your winter weather and let me know how accurate the woolly worm (mine or yours) is for your location. Who knows, we might turn this into a "true" blog dedicated to scientific research instead of one dedicated to the ramblings of an old man!